Last week, the domestic futures market prices accelerated, especially the rapid performance of the futures market, with the highest price increase of nearly 600 yuan at one time!
Among them, under the blessing of production restriction and safety production and other favorable factors, Bijiao has repeatedly set record highs, reaching 3000 yuan and 3800 yuan, and thread and hot coil futures have broken through the previous pressure level, with the highest standing at 5700 and 5900. Yuan Pass. Only iron ore is negatively correlated, and it has fallen all the way to a low of 710 yuan in the past 14 months.
Over the weekend, continued to break through the obstacles, superimposed on multiple departments to cool down, the bifocal at the cusp of the storm took the lead to adjust, and the diving accelerated in the afternoon, and the growth of thread and hot-coil futures also retreated significantly, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market gradually turned cold.
As of September 10, 2021, the Lange Steel Composite Price Index reached 5884 yuan, an increase of 1.64% from last weekend, and 42.84% higher than last year; the Lange Steel Long Steel Price Index reached 5589 yuan, an increase of 2.77% from last weekend, and compared with last year. It was 42.69% higher over the same period; the Lange Steel Plate Price Index reached 6,108 yuan, up 0.8% from last weekend and 43.02% higher than the same period last year.
In terms of specific spot prices, the monitoring data of the Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform shows that as of September 10, the average price of Φ25mm grade 3 rebar in the 10 major cities in China was 5433 yuan, an increase of 153 yuan over the weekend and an increase of 175 yuan over the same period last month. . As of September 10, the average price of Φ6.5mm and HPB300 high-line in the 10 major domestic cities was 5,961 yuan, an increase of 150 yuan over the weekend and an increase of 160 yuan over the same period last month.
The monitoring data of the Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform shows that as of September 10, the social inventory of construction steel in 29 key cities across the country reached 771,600 tons, a decrease of 153,900 tons from the previous weekend, or 1.96%, and a decrease of 3.64 from the same period last month. %, which is 17% lower than the same period last year.
Regarding the price of hot-rolled coils, the monitoring data of the Lange Steel Cloud Business Platform shows that as of September 10, the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coils in 10 key cities in China was 5,837 yuan, an increase of 67 yuan over the weekend and the same period last month. Up 82 yuan. In terms of inventory, as of September 10, the total inventory of hot-rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 2.592 million tons, a decrease of 73,300 tons from the end of last week, or 2.69%, and a decrease of 7.66% from the same period last month and higher than the same period last year. 7.2%.
As for the price of cold-rolled coil, as of September 10, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coil in 10 key cities in China was 6,520 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan over the weekend and 28 yuan over the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of September 10, the inventory of cold rolled coils in 24 key cities in China was 1,161,400 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons over the weekend, or 0.2%, an increase of 0.01% over the same period last month, and an increase of 10.6% over the same period last year. .
In terms of plate prices, as of September 10, the price of 20mm plates in 10 key cities in China was 5,713 yuan, an increase of 54 yuan over the weekend and 52 yuan over the same period last month. In terms of inventory, as of September 10, the stock of medium and heavy coils in 29 major cities in China reached 1.166 million tons, a decrease of 20,200 tons from the previous weekend, or 1.71%, and a decrease of 5.96% from the same period last month, and higher than the same period last year. 4.31%.
This week is about to enter mid-September. Will the steel market continue to move up or enter the adjustment market? What are the factors worthy of attention?
From the perspective of supply and demand, the speed of market destocking has accelerated significantly, indicating that the market is in the process of transitioning to the peak season. According to statistics from Lange Steel Network, as of September 10, steel stocks in key domestic cities were 12.703 million tons, a decrease of 245,000 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 1.9%. This week’s inventory was 8.91% lower than the same period last year. Among them, the construction steel inventory was 7,713,600 tons, a decrease of 153,900 tons from last week, a weekly decrease of 1.96%, and a decrease of 17% from the same period last year. Sheet stocks also fell across the board.
In the later stage, we need to pay attention to two continuities and one uncertainty. One is the continuity of demand. After the explosive volume of transactions this week, demand overdraft is obvious, market transactions tend to be weak, terminal and speculative demand is significantly reduced, and the market fear of high and wait-and-see psychology has begun to dominate. If the follow-up continues to be weak, it is not ruled out that there will be shocks and vomiting in the market;
From a general perspective, as the country’s structural adjustments to real estate are imperative, the impact of real estate on the economy will decline, and it is beginning to mention moderately advanced infrastructure construction. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission agreed to the National Railway Group to issue 300 billion yuan of China Railway Construction Bonds, of which 130 billion yuan will be used for railway construction projects, and 170 billion yuan will be used for debt structure adjustment. The impact of the market is more important.
The other is the continuous issue of production reduction, strict control of the production capacity of high-energy-consuming and high-emission industries, the full presence of environmental protection groups in various regions, and the progress of the announcement of the “Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Iron and Steel Industry”. The support for the market is still .
The uncertain factor is that the country’s tolerance for high prices is also more urgent. This week the National Development and Reform Commission once again emphasized the elimination of malicious speculation on coal prices, price hikes, hoarding and other behaviors. The DCE has adjusted its handling fees for coking coal and coke. The Coal Transportation and Marketing Association also stated that the price of coking coal cannot rise in an orderly manner, and market sentiment tends to be cautious. The game between supply and demand, reality and policy will continue in the later period.
From a technical point of view, one is that, except for iron ore, all are currently in the upward channel; the second is that it has reached a staged high; the third is that opportunities and risks coexist.
In particular, bifocals have repeatedly set historical new highs. The pressure on the upper side is very obvious. Thread and hot coil futures are roughly the same. Take the thread as an example. If 5700 is stable and there are new driving benefits, the possibility of breaking through 5800 exists. When encountering obstacles and even the reality is not as expected, the chances of turning down will increase significantly.
The new financial data is released. Among them, China’s social financing scale in August increased by 2.96 trillion yuan, 629.5 billion yuan less than the same period of the previous year. It is expected to be 285.714 billion yuan, and the previous value is 1.060 billion yuan; the balance of broad money (M2) at the end of August 231.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year, is estimated to be 8.4%, and the previous value is 8.3%; the new RMB loans in August are 1.220 billion yuan, which is estimated to be 1.4 trillion yuan, and the previous value is 1083.2 billion yuan. From the data point of view, the social financial data was slightly higher than expected, and was significantly higher than the previous value of 1.9 trillion, and the growth rate of M2 and new loans were slightly lower than expected.(Reprinted in Lange Steel)